And what does it mean for refugees?
An offensive by armed opposition groups that began in northwest Syria on 27 November and quickly spread to other parts of the country, reached the capital Damascus on the morning of 8 December. By the end of the day, President Bashar al-Assad’s 24-year rule had collapsed, leaving Syria at a crossroads.
Since then, the situation in the country remains extremely volatile. Fighting continues to affect many parts of the country, with lawlessness and looting also reported in some areas .
Over the past 14 years, Syria has been battered by conflict and crises. Hundreds of thousands of Syrians have been killed or injured and more than 13 million have been forced from their homes – half the pre-war population.
Over 7 million Syrians are displaced inside the country while more than 6 million are living as refugees, mainly in neighbouring countries including Türkiye, Lebanon and Jordan.
Many refugees are now wondering what the recent events will mean for them. While the situation is evolving rapidly, this is what we know:
One million people are newly displaced
Since the start of the offensive on 27 November, approximately 1 million people have been newly displaced from areas including Aleppo, Hama, Homs and Idlib governorates.
In addition, between late September and late November, Syria received more than half a million people fleeing Israeli airstrikes in neighbouring Lebanon. About 60 per cent were returning Syrians, while the rest were Lebanese. Since a ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon went into effect on 27 November, some 40,000 Lebanese refugees have returned to their country.
Thousands are returning, others fleeing
Thousands of Syrian refugees have reportedly started returning to the country from Lebanon. At the same time, some Syrians have fled in the opposite direction into Lebanon. Refugees are also returning from Türkiye to north-west Syria.
Most refugees opt to wait and see
Millions more Syrian refugees are trying to understand what the latest dramatic events mean for them and their families. They are following developments closely to assess whether the transition of power will be a peaceful one that respects their rights and allows for a safe return.
Syrian refugee Shadia Mohammad Jesm, her husband Mohammad Ahmad Al Nasa and daughters Cedra and Marwa have lived in a tent at a refugee camp in Saadnayel, Lebanon, for the past five years after fleeing conflict in Syria in 2014.
The camp is just a few kilometres from Masnaa, where thousands of Syrians have reportedly crossed back into Syria from Lebanon through an official border point which reopened on 8 December 2024.
Shadia voices the wariness felt by many others.
“It's all very uncertain in Syria now,” she says. “We want to go back, but we are afraid. I only wish the best for my country.”
After more than a decade in exile, many refugees no longer have homes or jobs to return to in Syria. Years of conflict have devastated their country’s economy and infrastructure, leaving 90 per cent of the population relying on some form of humanitarian aid. Hospitals across Syria are overwhelmed by high number of trauma and other injury cases, and food shortages have been reported in major cities.
Regardless of how the situation unfolds, millions of Syrians will need help with shelter, food and water to get through the coming winter and beyond.
UNHCR remains on the ground in Syria and is committed to stay and deliver critical aid. The volatile security situation has forced some operations to be suspended, but in areas where the security is stabilising, teams are racing to assist those most in need.
UNHCR is focused on providing emergency support including shelter, blankets, mattresses and winter clothing to help families face the bitter winter.
Filippo Grandi, UN High Commissioner for Refugees, says the fate of the country relies on a peaceful transition that respects the rights of all Syrians.
“Syria is at a crossroads between peace and war, freedom and lawlessness, prosperity and misery,” he says. “After 14 years of conflict, recent developments bring hope that the suffering of the Syrian people may finally end.”
The fall of the Assad government in Syria has raised hopes that the world’s largest forced displacement crisis may finally be resolved — but the future remains far from clear.
Now, more than ever, displaced Syrian families need our help to stay safe and warm. In these uncertain times, your support can make a real difference. Please give generously today.
The majority of funds raised by Australia for UNHCR are directed to UNHCR’s emergency operations, providing the ready funds and resources to respond quickly and effectively in situations of crisis and disaster.